 The Meaningful Vote (Posted January 15, 2019) Tweet THE VERDICT: The Ayes to the right, 202. The Noes to the left, 432, so the Noes have it, the Noes have it. And so begins the third act of the May ministry. The House will debate a no-confidence motion Wednesday January 16, and how the vote will go is anybody's guess. The sequence of motions, amendments, and votes that have occurred throughout the Brexit negotiation have risen to a political crescendo, but although recent events have made for great theater, it would be lamentable (to use Speaker Bercow's word of the day) if Parliament were to throw gasoline onto the fire by forcing an early general election. PREDICTION: May's Brexit deal PASSES by 3.5 votes. Though the Grieve amendment makes a no-deal Brexit theoretically less likely in the event May's draft agreement is voted down, and therefore makes a vote against the deal currently on the table less risky, there is, ironically, a competing effect created by the Yvette Cooper motion ruling out a no-deal Brexit. If the default position, in the absence of a policy approved by the House, is to be no-Brexit, then it behooves Brexiteers to vote for May's deal. If Brexiteers of all stripes do not rally around Brexit-lite, choosing instead to nurture the hope of a robust, full-bodied Brexit, they will likely find themselves Brexit-free for the foreseeable future. |
| Tags | Theresa May |